STRATEGIC CRIME ANALYSIS AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR CRIME PREDICTION AND PREVENTION

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive theoretical and applied study of strategic criminal analysis as one of the fundamental tools for forecasting the criminogenic situation and preventing crime in the context of the transformation of the modern security environment. It is substantiated that strategic criminal analysis occupies an independent place in the system of criminal analysis and performs the function of long-term information and analytical support for law enforcement activities, oriented toward identifying crime trends, assessing criminogenic risks, establishing strategic priorities, and developing preventive management decisions. Scientific approaches to understanding criminal analysis, its typology, and its connection with the Intelligence-led Policing model are analyzed. It is established that strategic criminal analysis, unlike tactical and operational analysis, focuses on long-term threats, “hot spots”, structural changes in crime, and prospective scenarios for its development. The significance of SWOT analysis, SOCTA, OSINT, risk analysis, situational, and geographic analysis as the most relevant tools of strategic analysis is revealed. Particular attention is paid to the institutionalization of criminal analysis in Ukraine, the role of criminal analysis units of the National Police, and the prospects for using modern digital platforms capable of enhancing the predictive and preventive functions of analytical activity. It is proved that strategic criminal analysis should be considered not only as a tool for describing the criminogenic situation but as a mechanism for managing criminogenic risks and preparing decisions at the level of state, regional, and departmental policy in the field of crime counteraction. The practical implementation of the proposed approaches will contribute to increasing the efficiency of strategic planning in law enforcement agencies, ensuring the transition from reactive response to proactive management of criminogenic risks and strengthening the overall security of society.