VICTIMOLOGICAL FORECASTING IN PREVENTING VIOLENT CRIMES AGAINST THE SEXUAL FREEDOM AND SEXUAL INVIOLABILITY OF A CHILD

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of victimological forecasting as one of the promising areas of prevention of violent crimes against the sexual freedom and sexual inviolability of a child under contemporary conditions characterized by increased social, psychological, and security-related risks. It is substantiated that the high latency of such crimes, the difficulty of their timely detection, and the multifactorial nature of child victimization determine the need not only for preventive measures, but also for the development of a system of anticipatory identification of trends, circumstances, and high-risk groups. It is emphasized that victimological forecasting should take into account both internal factors related to the child’s age, psychological condition, behavioural characteristics, and level of awareness, and external factors, including family dysfunction, lack of social control, digital threats, crisis living conditions, and the influence of a traumatic environment.
The paper focuses on the fact that victimological forecasting should rely on a systematic analysis of information received from law enforcement agencies, educational institutions, child protection services, social institutions, psychologists, and medical professionals. Its practical purpose lies in the timely identification of children who are in a state of increased victim vulnerability, the determination of the most dangerous environments and situations, and the development of well-grounded decisions regarding the direction of preventive influence. It is emphasized that particular importance should be attached to forecasting risks related to family disorganization, child abuse, lack of proper parental supervision, contacts with dangerous social surroundings, as well as the child’s presence in the online space, where the danger of online grooming, sexual blackmail, and digital exploitation is increasing.
A separate area of analysis concerns the impact of martial law on the complication of forecasting processes related to child victimization. Forced displacement, the destruction of habitual social ties, temporary residence in dangerous or disorganized conditions, psychological exhaustion, weakened adult supervision, and the significant expansion of digital communication create new risks of sexual violence against children. The article proves that under such conditions victimological forecasting should be adapted to wartime realities and should take into account not only traditional criminogenic and victimogenic factors, but also new forms of threats caused by the instability of the security environment.